February 08, 2017

The 10th Asian Financial Forum was held in Hong Kong on January 16-17 this year, with the theme: Driving Change, Innovation and Connectivity. 

This year’s heavyweight speakers include Mr. Ding Xue Dong, Chairman and CEO of China Investment Corporation; Dr. Mohamed A. El-Erian, Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz and former CEO and Co-CIO at PIMCO; Professor Raghuram Rajan from the University of Chicago, who was also the 23rd Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, and many other distinguished business leaders. 

On the first day’s keynote luncheon, Mr. Ding Xue Dong highlighted that although many events in 2016 created uncertainty for the world economy, such as Brexit and US election results; there are still some certainties which we should pay attention to.  For example, the US economy is still on a solid recovery path, commodity prices have generally moved out from the bottom of the cycle and are trending upwards, and India is expected to grow faster than China in the foreseeable future.  These certainties remind us that there are always opportunities amid risks and danger (as shown by the Chinese phrase 危机), and focusing more on the positives rather than negatives could result in better outcomes. 

Meanwhile, Dr. Mohamed A. El-Erian told the luncheon audience that he thinks that we may continue to be surprised by major election results in 2017 as voters get increasingly consumed by politics of anger and anti-establishment sentiment.  In spite of what is going to happen, he urged political leaders around the world to focus on four key elements in their economic strategy: (i) keeping up on pro-growth structural reforms; (ii) relying less on monetary policy and more on fiscal policy; (iii) granting debt forgiveness to debtors; (iv) strengthening regional and global architecture to foster economic cooperation.  He said that focusing on these four principles will help sustain the adventurous and innovative spirit of investors to keep the economy going.  

On the second day of the forum, Professor Raghuram Rajan pointed out the changing international order resulting from recent geopolitical events.  No doubt, the US-China relationship remains the most important bilateral relation in the world and their leaders’ actions will have profound implications on the global economy.  While President Trump has indicated his support for trade protectionism, President Xi has stepped up to urge international leaders to stay on the right course for economic globalization.  Quite a change of direction – considering that China is still a Communist country and the US has always been a front runner in embracing global capitalism.  Professor Rajan also remarked that technology will continue to change the future economy and the nature of jobs, where many traditional jobs performed by humans are likely to become obsolete in the near future.

And that brings us back to the key theme of this year’s conference: driving change and innovation.  There were many concurrent workshops discussing the latest trends of fintech in Asia.  One which I attended talked about the technological development of payment systems in China – currently one of the most advanced (if not the most) in the world.  Clearly, fintech is a new wave which is disrupting the financial services industry where many operational functions are being replaced by computers, and this wave will be here to stay for quite some time. 

Stay tuned for all the fintech events which Asia Wealth Community is bringing to you this year – whether it’s to learn new knowledge or get acquainted with business partners in this sector, they will certainly be very relevant to our professional needs I am sure!

January 23, 2017

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January 22, 2017

As I was having lunch with Ibu Ratih, our Board Member for Indonesia and looking out of the window of China Club. We were seeing a picture of the New Economy under Industry 4.0. 

Where the traditional business and its models are now being replaced by IR 4.0.  We no longer need to go to the mall for shopping when we can get variety, convenience at your door steps with a much reduced price. 

This is now a world of BIG DATA, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIENGE. Welcome to our brave new world which is very exciting and scary at the same time. (One predication of mine that we will only need 25-30% of the global population to work, what do we do with the rest of 70%) 

January 20, 2017

With the unpredictable mouth of President Trump, I am sticking my neck out with a call to buy Gold. USA is technically at war with China, picking on Germany as the whipping boy of Europe and bullying the Mexican neighbors. Weekly technicals chart shows multi-months long trending. 

My call is to buy gold at 1088 with an upside of 1500 by Q317, a healthy 37.8 % return. Start building long positions from 1188 to 1088, buying on dips with 2 ATR stop loss. 

Current level of gold is at 1201 as of 21 Jan 2017

January 17, 2017

What to expect with a Trump's Presidency ?

January 03, 2023

I caught these words during one of my conversations with Michelle from Gold Coast, Australia. Delusion. 

The recent rise of US dollar is not NORMAL and lot of investors are banking of grandeur is a state of mental disorder whereby investors fail to fathom the real alchemy of finance or financial markets.of this idea that US dollar will continue to go up and up. Investors are misreading the markets. The dynamics of higher interest rates and making US exporter suffer are the grand game plan of few people in US would like to play with Trump. 

Lots of people are involving in doing CHARACTER ASSASSINATION upon Donald Trump. People are misled by few media personnel’s due to their own hidden agenda to believe that Trump is bad for the US economy. In fact, he is very pragmatic and hands- on in his approach.

The reasons are simple:
1. He is smarter than many other people on the Wall Street in NY.
2. He is a successful entrepreneur from North America
3. He is a Wharton graduate like many of my smartest and savviest friends out there such as Ziad Abdelnour and the likes. I am glad to be connected with Ziad due to Rola Ezzedine
4. He is blunt and straight forward and it is arduous for some people to absorb his style.
5. He has chosen his cabinet members from the corporate sector NOT Bureaucrats.

RED FLAGS ARE UP and MARKET OUTLOOK FOR 2017
1. US dollar will go down against all major currencies including Yuan/Euro/Yen/Pound in the next 3-4 months
2. US 10 year yields would be trading between 1.5 and 2.3% moving forward by June 30, 17
3. Oil is running NORTH in the range of $75-$100/barrel by Q-3/17
4. Gold is showing its heading and moving towards $1500/oz by Q-2/Q-3, 2017
5. Russian rouble is the currency to watch out in 2017 according to Mohamed El Shawa

Stay on top of the market with IQI Holdings / Shan Saeed.

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